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Contributors
Daniel Pipes- Contributor
Daniel
Pipes is director of the Middle
East Forum, a member of the
presidentially-appointed board of the U.S.
Institute of Peace,
and a prize-winning columnist for the New York Sun and The
Jerusalem Post. His most recent book, Miniatures:
Views of Islamic and Middle Eastern Politics (Transaction
Publishers) appeared in late 2003. His website, DanielPipes.org,
the single most accessed source of information specifically
on
the Middle East and Islam, offers an archive and a chance
to sign-up to receive his new materials as they appear. [go
to Pipes index]
 Lebanon's
Liberation Approaches
Change sweeps the Middle East?...
[Daniel Pipes] 2/24/05
The fate of Syria was in good measure determined on January
21, 1994. That's when, driving at a too-high speed to the Damascus
airport for a skiing trip abroad, Basil Al-Assad crashed the
Mercedes he was driving, killing himself and his passengers.
The accident had great consequence because Basil, then 31, was
being groomed to succeed his father, Hafez Al-Assad, as dictator
of Syria. All indications pointed to the equestrian, martial,
and charismatic Basil making for a formidable ruler.
After the car crash, his younger brother Bashar got yanked back
from his ophthalmologic studies in London and enrolled in a rapid
course to prepare as Syria's next strongman. He perfunctorily
ascended the military ranks and on his father's demise in June
2000 he, sure enough, succeeded to the presidential throne.
(This made Bashar the second dynastic dictator, with Kim Jong
Il of North Korea having been the first in 1994. The third one,
being Faure
Gnassingbé of Togo, emerged earlier this month. Other sons
waiting in the wings include Gamal Mubarak of Egypt, Saifuddin
Gadhafi of Libya, and Ahmed Salih of Yemen. Saddam Hussein's
pair never made it.) [later addition: readers have pointed
out other republican princes: Jean-Claude
("Baby") Duvalier succeeded his father François ("Papa Doc")
Duvalier as ruler of Haiti in April 1971; Ilham
Aliev succeeded his father Heidar as prime minister of Azerbaijan in
August 2003.]
The possibility existed that Bashar, due to his brief Western
sojourn and scientific orientation, would dismantle his father's
totalitarian contraption; Bashar's early steps suggested he might
do just that, but then he quickly reverted to his father's autocratic
methods - either because of his own inclinations or because he
remained under the sway of his father's grandees.
His father's methods, yes, but not his skills. The elder Assad
was a tactical genius, even if his rule ultimately failed (he
never regained the Golan Heights, never came close to destroying
Israel, and rode Syria's economy and culture into the ground).
The younger Assad combines strategic blindness with tactical
ineptitude.
Within months of Bashar's accession, questions
arouse about his ability to retain control over Lebanon;
not long after, his
ability to hold on to power in Syria itself came under doubt.
The Syrian government's rush to the side of Saddam Hussein
just as he was ousted made eyebrows rise with wonder. Bashar's
pattern of promising one thing to U.S. Secretary of State Colin
Powell, then instantly breaking his word caused general
bafflement.
These mistakes prompted passage of two landmark anti-regime
measures. In December 2003, the American government passed the Syrian
Accountability Act which punished Damascus for its malfeasance.
In September 2004, the U.N. Security Council passed Resolution
1559 which called on all "foreign forces" to withdraw their
troops from Lebanon, a clear reference to the Syrian troops that
arrived in 1976.
These steps encouraged leading Lebanese politicians to demand
the withdrawal of Syrian forces. Most notably, Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt and Sunni leader Rafik Hariri took this fateful step,
thereby threatening to deprive Damascus of both its sense of
territorial achievement and its golden Lebanese economic goose.
There can be little
doubt that Mr. Assad was behind the massive (probably underground)
blast on February 14 that gouged a 20-yard-wide crater,
killing Hariri and 16 others. With his flair for incompetence,
Mr. Assad presumably decided that the former prime minister
had to die for this betrayal. But, quite contrary to Mr. Assad's
presumed expectations, far from reducing pressures on Syria
to leave Lebanon, the atrocity magnified
and intensified them.
Mr. Assad's response pretending
to denounce the murder, putting
a relative in charge of the intelligence services, purchasing
SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, and announcing
a mutual
defense pact with Tehran points to his cluelessness about
the trouble he has stirred up for himself. For the first time
in three decades, Lebanon now seems within reach of regaining
its independence. "I don't see how Syria can stay now," observes Lebanon's
former president, Amin Gemayel.
The reassertion of Lebanon's independence will fittingly reward
an unsung steadfastness. The Lebanese may have once squandered
their sovereignty, starting with the Syrian invasion of 1976
and culminating in the nearly complete occupation of 1990, but
they showed dignity and bravery under occupation. Against the
odds, they asserted
a civil society, kept alive the hope
of freedom, and retained a sense of patriotism.
Lebanon's independence will also serve as a large nail in the
coffin of the brutal, failed, and unloved Assad dynasty. If things
go right, Syria's liberation should follow on Lebanon's.
Thus can a mere traffic accident influence history.
tRO This
piece first appeared in the New York Sun
copyright
2005 Daniel Pipes
§
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