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 What
If We Left Iraq Today?
Think chaos and anarchy…
[by Laura
Mansfield] 1/9/06
So what happens
if we take the advice of Cindy Sheehan and the other anti-war
protestors? What happens if we leave Iraq now?
Let's pull
out the old crystal ball and take a look at Iraq, in the days
and weeks after the United States announces an unconditional
and complete pullout.
Imagine that
this afternoon Congress passes a law calling for the immediate
pullout from Iraq. The President announces he will comply and
that troop withdrawal will begin immediately.. *Now remember
- this is a "what-if" scenario - it has NOT happened.
Contributor
Laura
Mansfield
Laura Mansfield is a writer and commentator on issues regarding the Middle
East, Islam, and Radical Islamic Terrorism.
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to her Strategic
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She
is a regular subject matter consultant for news agencies
in the UK, the US, Germany, Italy, and Israel. [go
to Mansfield index] [go to Mansfield website]
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One
Nation Under Allah by Laura Mansfield |
Inshallah
by
Laura Mansfield |
Almost as soon as the words are broadcast, the jihadi boards
fill with propaganda and rhetoric declaring victory. The streets
of Baghdad and Tehran and Gaza are filled with celebrations.
But behind the revelry, the hard core jihadis are getting busy.
They begin to plan massive attacks on the retreating US forces.
Shoulder powered missiles and surface to air missiles are quickly
prepared for immediate use in attacking airplanes and helicopters
moving US troops out of Iraq.
As word of the imminent US pullout spreads through the Iraqi
nation, there is panic among those who supported the US. Members
of the Iraqi police and army pack their families in their cars,
and head for the US bases. They assume that they will be included
in the evacuation. They know that their support for the US is
a death sentence for both them and their families.
The insurgents anticipate this mad rush for the bases, and numerous
families are ambushed as they attempt to flee for safety.
As word spreads of the ambushes, others flee for the Kuwaiti
and Jordanian borders, where they are stopped. The Jordanians
and Kuwaitis, fearful of Iraqi insurgents commingled with the
refugees, simply close the borders.
As the US troops begin to fly out, there are numerous reports
of missiles being launched at the departing aircraft. Some plane
and choppers are shot down. One of those planes carried Iraqi
civilian employees of the US government and their families. The
TV news is covered with comparisons to the 1975 Operation Babylift
plane crash in Saigon.
The insurgency is tasting victory. But who wins? Not the Iraqi
people, that's for sure.
Many of the insurgent groups are made up of many smaller groups,
with different goals and ideologies. They merged together to
gain strength in fighting the common enemy they shared - the
US. Splits emerge quickly in the mujahideen groups, and they
begin to attack each other. Suicide bombings, car bombings, and
missile attacks quickly become a way of life.
Within a few days, there are several suicide bombings in Israel.
The message has been heard clearly throughout the world. The
US is a defeated giant.
And as the foreigners who have given much of the life to the
insurgency start to return to their home countries, then suicide
bombings and car bombings start to make headlines in the nations
of the west. Cinemas, nightclubs, restaurants, transit systems,
and shopping centers all become targets of these returning jihadis.
In the meantime, chaos and anarchy have quickly taken over Iraq.
Many of the police have simply walked off the job.
Over the next few months conditions continue to degrade. Refugee
camps remain on the borders; humanitarian groups are slow to
move in aid because of fears of kidnappings and attacks by the
insurgents.
Do you think the above scenario can't or won't happen? Before
you cling too tightly to that belief, I suggest you take a look
at events in Beirut, Somalia, and Viet Nam after the US pulled
out, and at Iran after the Shah left the country.
I can guarantee you, it won't be pretty.
Without the US or another third party present to preserve order
while the law and order is restored, ultimately Iraq will probably
partition into four different countries: secular Iraq, around
Baghdad Predominantly Sunni area, following Islamist ideologies
Kurdistan in the north Shiite nation in the south
The warlords and bandits will take over the Sunni region a la
Somalia. When order is eventually restored it will be in the
form of a Taliban-like regime, following strict Islamic shari'a.
The Shi'ite nation will face continuous destabilization from
Iran. Iran will want the country to install a theocracy following
Islamic shar'ia; others will want a more secular form of government.
It could get very ugly as the sides duke it out.
The secular Iraq and the Kurdish areas will stabilize more quickly
than the others, but those two regions will still face many years
of problems, much as Beirut did following the US pullout.
So does pulling out of Iraq today still sound like such a good
idea? -one-
copyright
2006 Laura Mansfield
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