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Even discounting the tendency of the mainline media to focus on bad news, it is obvious now, to even the most ardent Bush supporters, that things are not going well in Iraq. Training the Iraq military and police to assume responsibility for security presumed that we had already established enough security for them to assume which was not the case. The plan also was predicated on the expectation that the Iraqis would put aside tribal hatreds in the interest of national unity which they did not.

But President George W. Bush seems steadfast in not giving up on the Iraqis. Unfortunately, though, most Americans have, as the upcoming elections will probably demonstrate. Mr. Bush’s grim determination in the face of declining popularity and support is reminiscent of the resolve of another wartime leader, Harry S. Truman, to whom he enjoys being compared. Truman’s low popularity ratings rivaled Bush’s and led to the defeat of his party in the 1952 elections. But Truman is fondly remembered today as a decisive president and wartime leader. Bush is confident that history will also be kinder to him than today’s popularity polls.

But while Truman may be fondly remembered because of his decisiveness, it should also be remembered that under his post-WW II administration, our armed forces were drawn down to the point that we were ill-prepared for the onset of the Korean War, resulting in heavy U.S. casualties in its early stages. In can be argued that we are again ill-prepared for the challenges we face today. Our Navy is at its lowest ship level since the Great Depression and the administration is attempting to deal with military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan with an Army and Marine Corps sized at peacetime levels and that rely heavily on reserves and National Guard forces, many of whom are serving repeat overseas tours.

It is no secret that our military is overcommitted, greatly limiting our options in dealing with emerging threats in Iran, North Korea and possibly elsewhere. Thus, we watch in frustration as North Korea conducts a nuclear test and proceeds to expand a nuclear weapons capability while Iran proceeds down the same path, in defiance of the United States and most of the rest of the world. The threats to our security have rarely been so ominous but we have few options other than diplomacy, threats and mostly unenforceable resolutions. We have reason to doubt that our military force levels are sufficient to add a major military option.

Technological achievements, to be sure, have greatly enhanced our ability to do more with less but there is a limit to how far we can go in substituting technology for people and platforms. Boots on the ground will nearly always be required. We have plenty of boots but not nearly enough feet to fill them.

Mr. Bush may wish to be remembered as a decisive leader who made the correct choice in going into Iraq and standing tough in the face of adversity but that will happen only if enough security can be established to permit Iraq to function as an independent democracy that does not become another terrorist haven. Today, that goal seems illusive. Iraq is a collection of quarrelsome, murderous sects and tribes masquerading as a country. While our forces seek to train the Iraqi military and police to take charge of security so that the government can function, the Iraqis seem bent mainly on seeking revenge on rivals. We are sacrificing American soldiers and marines while they are killing each other.

Critics of the administration are right, not in demanding a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, but in calling for a change in strategy. Presumably, Iraqi leaders have already been told to get their collective acts together or risk loss of support but it appears that they cannot be persuaded to put aside tribal rivalries and disband the militias. We should now tell them that American voters have clearly had enough.

I have no magic solution but with Iraq sliding further into civil strife, I see two possible approaches and “stay the course” is not one of them. One is to reassert control in areas where Iraqi forces have failed to establish security and reestablish military occupation under a U.S military government until enough security exists to permit an Iraqi national government to function. This, of course, would require many more years and a substantial increase in force levels and cost. It would be a very hard sell, especially with a Democratic congress, and success is by no means assured, given the deep-seated divisions in Iraq.

copyright 2006 J. F. Kelly, Jr.

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