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It is admittedly difficult to define precisely what we mean by victory in Iraq. It is not so difficult, however, to define failure and its probable consequences.

If President Bush’s last-chance surge strategy succeeds in achieving some semblance of durable security in Baghdad, the Shiite-dominated Iraq government just may get its act together, put a stop to revenge killings by Shiite death squads and manage to built a unified nation capable of standing on its own two feet. On the other hand, it may not.

If security can be maintained long enough, the Iraqi army and police may also get their respective acts together, put aside religious hatred and tribal loyalties and provide equal security for all Iraqis. Then again, they may not.

If we can, by this surge of U.S. forces, establish security in the Sunni triangle, perhaps the Sunni insurgents will put down their arms, end their suicide attacks and work with their Shiite Muslim brothers to support a stable government for all Iraqi. But, then again, perhaps not.

Sectarian division in this troubled land is so deeply ingrained that there can be no assurances that violence won’t flare anew, if indeed it ever abates, whether we stay or leave. We simply don’t know if Mr. Bush’s strategy will produce any lasting benefits at all. But we can be fairly certain, on the other hand, that if it fails because of Iraqi military incompetence, insufficient forces or both or because we didn’t even try and we withdraw our forces precipitously, some very bad things will swiftly happen.

Free from American intervention, unrestrained civil war between Shia and Sunnis would erupt. The Shiite majority, outnumbering the Sunnis 3 to 1, would initiate a massacre in revenge for their treatment under Baathist rule. The bloodbath would continue unabated until neighboring Sunni Arab nations intervened forcibly. Iranian influence, already significant within the Shiite-dominated Iraq government, would increase greatly. Intervention by Sunni Arab states could provoke a conflict with the Shiite Persians, inflaming the entire Middle East in violence.

Sectarian hatred in the region is matched only by a common hatred of Americans, Europeans and, of course the Jews, who along with the Americans would continue to be viewed as the chief cause of all the region’s difficulties. Americans would be blamed by Muslim nations everywhere and by many Muslims living in Europe for the chaos resulting from the American invasion of Iraq. Many Muslims would trumpet the American withdrawal as an ignominious defeat for American aggression and perhaps as a triumph of Islam over non-believers. Israel’s enemies would be emboldened anew.

American prestige worldwide would suffer a devastating blow. Our power, resolve and endurance would be questioned by friend and foe. Our timid allies in Europe, far from praising us for a decision to finally withdraw, would instead ratchet up the blame for the chaos we created. Fearful of increased terror at the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, including those in their own restive Muslim populations, they would seek to distance themselves from America, increasing our isolation. China, intent on overtaking us economically and militarily, would benefit from this.

Findings in a recently-released National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq noted a continued Kurdish movement toward autonomy. The Kurds, inhabiting the prosperous, oil-rich north, want no part of the Shiite-Sunni civil war. A U.S. pullout would likely drive them to declare independence, provoking Turkey, a U.S. ally, and hastening the collapse of the Iraqi government.

The National Intelligence estimate findings also noted that the Iraqi army would probably not survive a rapid U.S. pull-out and Sunni governments in the region would be reluctant to provide any support to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government.

These are some of the probable consequences of failure in Iraq. To be sure, they may occur anyway, whether or not the current surge strategy is judged successful, but we have little choice other than to try to help prevent such chaos.

copyright 2007 J. F. Kelly, Jr.

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