Hugh Hewitt - Principal Contributor
Hewitt is senior member of the CaliforniaRepublic.org editorial
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Unbelievable Poll Numbers!
A political agenda in the media…
[Hugh Hewitt] 6/24/04
Here's the Harris
Poll from late last week, full of good news
for the president, including a 10-point lead over Kerry in likely
voters. Unlike the discredited Los Angeles Times poll showing
Kerry with a 7-point lead, the reputable Harris survey got very
interesting data from the survey is the comparison between
approval rating – 50 percent – in
June of his re-election year, and the approval ratings of other
presidents in the June of their re-election years.
Clinton in '96, Reagan in '84, and Nixon in '72, were at 55
percent, 55 percent, and 56 percent respectively. The incumbents
who lost, Bush 41, Carter and Ford were at 32 percent, 26 percent
and 41 percent respectively. This president is much closer to
the numbers of the re-elected (twice with landslides, once comfortably)
than he is to the presidents who were turned out of office.
an economy surging, the approval number is going up. The
Wall Street Journal reported Monday that the "surge
in the U.S. economy is beginning to produce jobs in battleground
states where the 2004 fight for the presidency might be decided," including "job
growth last month in 10 of 12 states in which polls show President
Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic contender,
locked in seesaw fights." In some places, the growth is
relatively small – Ohio picked up 1,100 jobs in May – but
the direction is what matters.
A few days after Harris published its results, the Washington
Post-ABC poll begged to differ. They find the president is behind
John Kerry by four points in their poll of registered voters.
Of course, I'd rather be leading in likely voters than registered
voters, but I don't think that explains the difference in the
polls. One of them has to be broken.
I think it is the Washington
Post poll. The reason? Two months
ago the same poll showed respondents preferring Bush over Kerry
when it came to fighting terrorism by an astounding but understandable
margin of 21 percent.
This new poll shows the two tied in the public eyes when it
comes to fighting terrorism.
And this after the pacification of the al Sadr revolt, the calming
of Fallujah, the naming of the interim government, the U.N. resolution,
the D-Day memorial, the G-8 summit, another 250,000 jobs (making
nearly a million in three months) and of course, the Reagan funeral.
So we are
supposed to believe the Washington Post poll? I don't. I think
the laugh test, and that the Harris survey – backed
by three decades of asking the same questions from serious samples – deserves
Of course, what really matters are the state-by-state breakdowns,
and I send you to:
Dale's Electoral College Breakdown
for the best polling breakdowns anywhere on the Web. Be sure
to consult as well ChrisisHardCore and BlogsforBush on a daily
basis for crucial election trends.
With little over five months to go, however, the news is tremendous
for the president and the oxygen is running out for Kerry (with
Big Billy C. taking in great big gasps of it). Kerry can clutch
at outlier polls if he wants, but history and events are marching
away from him and toward the re-election of W. CRO
Principal Contributor Hugh Hewitt is an author, television
and syndicated talk-show host of the Salem Radio Network's Hugh
Hewitt Show, heard in over 40 markets around the country.
He blogs regularly at HughHewitt.com and he frequently contributes opinion pieces to the Weekly
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