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Contributors
Doug Gamble- Contributor
Doug
Gamble is a former writer for President Ronald Reagan and
resides
in Carmel. [go to Gamble index]
 Arnold Rules,
California GOP Stalls
Is the state GOP any better off?...
[Doug Gamble] 12/8/04
While the State of the State address Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
delivers in January will undoubtedly overflow with his trademark
optimism and gung-ho spirit, the state of the California Republican
Party is not as rosy.
The party enters 2005 coming off a humiliating defeat in the
U.S. Senate race, being denied the gain of so much as a single
seat in the Legislature and facing the search for a sacrificial
lamb to run against U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2006.
Although a nice guy and dedicated public servant, former California
Secretary of State Bill Jones fell far short of seriously challenging
incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer. The fault may lie as much with
the party itself as with Jones.
The party establishment
anointed him in the primary in the apparent belief that last
year’s recall election had marked
a sea change in state politics, shifting voter allegiance to
the Republicans. Overlooked was the fact the election was an
aberration and Schwarzenegger was elected as a moderate. A moderate
candidate such as former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin -- a Jones
primary opponent -- would have been a more competitive and compelling
Boxer opponent.
National Republicans
also had it wrong, with the head of the Republican Senate fund-raising
committee, Virginia Senator George
Allen, giving Jones a chance to beat Boxer because, “It’s
a whole new terrain there, a whole new ballgame, with Governor
Schwarzenegger.”
As for the governor, having endorsed Jones in the primary but
later realizing he was going down to defeat, Schwarzenegger
refused to make any public appearances
with him during the campaign. Talk about love ‘em and leave ‘em.
What Schwarzenegger did do was travel the state in support
of select Assembly and Senate candidates, hoping his appeal and
popularity would lead to GOP gains in Sacramento. He bombed,
another indication that despite the result of the recall election
California remains a fundamentally Democratic state.
Any lingering doubts
about this should be erased when Feinstein romps to reelection
in two years. At the moment, with the Republicans
having zero statewide officeholders besides Schwarzenegger, one
would be hard pressed to name a potential rival to the woman
who is easily California’s most respected politician.
One dream scenario has Schwarzenegger taking a pass on reelection
in favor of a race against Feinstein, but this is highly unlikely.
In the event the Constitution is changed to allow the 2008 presidential
run he craves, he would not want to risk a defeat that would
tarnish his political record.
High on Schwarzenegger’s
agenda is a likely push for a special election next year that
would play to his strength
on ballot measures and would give him more muscle with the Legislature.
While his campaigning for individual candidates laid an egg,
voters have been more willing to follow him on certain initiatives.
Measures Schwarzenegger
would champion would likely include outside judges drawing
congressional and legislative district
lines instead of the Legislature, mandatory spending limits and
a renewed attempt to dilute the power of labor money in elections.
Faced with a Democratic-controlled Legislature, and considering
his skill in selling most Californians on broad concepts, “government
by ballot initiative” is worth a try.
With Schwarzenegger
in the executive suite, California Republicans are better off
now than they were two years ago. But it’s
because of a cult of personality and not any rightward shift.
The GOP still has a long way to go to add more red to the Golden
State. CRO
California-based Doug Gamble contributed speech material to
Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and writes a twice-monthly
column for the Orange County Register and CaliforniaRepublic.org.
Copyright
2004 Doug Gamble
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