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Jon Coupal- Columnist

Jon Coupal is an attorney and president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association -- California's largest taxpayer organization with offices in Los Angeles and Sacramento. [go to website] [go to Coupal index]

Early Primaries Could Spell Trouble for Taxpayers
Prop 56 lurks on the ballot..
[Jon Coupal] 2/6/04

The early presidential primaries and caucuses are proving how a candidate can go from media anointed front runner to has been in just a matter of hours.

In California, Republicans watched Howard Dean's post caucus pep rally performance (some called it a "meltdown") with a sense of amusement because they already know who their candidate will be, while Democrats were watching with anticipation, wondering if their vote will still mean something on March 2.

Regardless of party affiliation, all California taxpayers have a major stake in the combined results of the early contests. If the race for the nomination is still competitive come March 2nd, the number of Democrats going to the polls will be larger than if there is a dominant front runner for the nomination. And the number of Democrats going to the polls could be the deciding factor on whether or not Proposition 56, the public employee unions' effort to crush Proposition 13, passes. This is because, as a general matter, Democratic voters are more likely to support additional government spending than are Republicans. The tax increases that Proposition 56 would allow can be counted on to smooth the way for more spending.

Although Proposition 56 is being touted by its promoters as a measure that will make state government more accountable and streamline the budget process, its real goal is to make it much easier to increase taxes by eliminating Proposition 13's mandate that new state taxes be approved by two-thirds of the Legislature. Last year lawmakers introduced over one hundred tax increase measures totaling nearly $65 billion. Had Proposition 56 been law, virtually every tax increase could have passed. Proposition 56 would hand a blank check to politicians to be made good by taxpayers.

Some of those campaigning for passage of Proposition 56 have claimed publicly that this blank check initiative has nothing to do with Proposition 13. They are either ignorant or lying.

Howard Jarvis and Paul Gann designed Proposition 13 to be more than property tax relief. It was intended to be a complete package of taxpayer protections. They saw no benefit to reducing a property owner's taxes if government could turn around and take as much or more out of the taxpayer's other pocket. To prevent this they required a public vote to approve most local taxes and a two-thirds vote of the Legislature to increase state taxes. Proposition 56 would change this to the detriment of taxpayers.

So the Democratic turnout is likely the key to whether or not California, already a high-tax state, raises levies even more.

It should be made clear that not all Democrats favor tax increases. A significant number support Proposition 13 and its taxpayer protections. In fact, about 35 percent of members of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association are registered Democrats. They realize that without Proposition 13, many would be forced to move from their homes of many years. They tend to be "Reagan" Democrats who look to Jack Kennedy, a tax cutter, and Harry "the buck stops here" Truman as heroes of the Democratic Party.

However, if past elections are a gage, it is the marginal Democratic voters, those drawn to the polls by an exciting contest at the top of the ticket, who are most likely tip the scales in favor of a tax increase measure.

So while California taxpayers are prepared to enjoy watching the "whoops and hollers" of the victorious candidates and their supporter after the poles close March 2nd, they hope they too will be celebrating -- celebrating the defeat of Proposition 56.

copyright 2004 Howard Jarvis Taxpayers association

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